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June 30, 2004

Kevin Drum is impressed by the power of blogs to raise political money: "[T]he fact that Atrios has raised $228,000 (so far) for John Kerry is genuinely astonishing. I'm not sure what the future of the blogosphere is, but anyone who can bundle up that kind of dough is a pretty serious player."

He's absolutely right. And while I would be the first to admit that the practice of self-linking is almost always distasteful in principle, Kevin's spot-on post does seem to present an irresistible opportunity for some of us to remind a few of our friends in the business that there was a time, just over three years ago, when some scoffed -- and rather loudly -- as that basic idea was first being suggested to them....

POSTSCRIPT: Yes, I know, many readers won't care for the nice things I had to say about Andrew Sullivan in that piece, but I stand by most of it. Truth is, when he's not being a reckless demagogue, Sullivan can be well worth reading.

POSTSCRIPT 2: And congratulations to Atrios. As Kevin says, that's an astonishing accomplishment.

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For the past several weeks, this site has been receiving a visit every two to three minutes from a specific IP address. My completely uneducated guess is that it's probably an out-of-control feed reader, but I don't really have the requisite expertise to make that judgment. If you, well, know more about this kind of thing than I do, and have some thoughts that you'd be willing to share on the issue, please leave a comment, or drop me a line at the e-mail address on your right.

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June 28, 2004

Barry Ritholtz will be giving CNBC's Kudlow & Cramer the Big Picture perspective on Iraq, the economy, Election 2004, and more at 5:10 pm ET today. If you're near a TV set, don't miss it.

We now return you to our regularly scheduled programming....

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Actually, I don't. But Josh Marshall does, and apparently it's a doozy.

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In a Thursday post* that I somehow just got around to reading this morning, Jeff Jarvis argues that President Bush's fiscal policy -- tax cuts, deficits, soak the grandkids -- is "political cynicism at its worst," a fairly uncontroversial assessment with which even the conservative Andrew Sullivan (who used to edit The Even the Liberal New Republic, don't you know) would not take issue. Unfortunately, Jeff doesn't stop there:

Now Democratic New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey has made an equally cynical act but with a uniquely Democratic twist. In the state budget just approved, McGreevey lowered taxes by raising taxes. He is taxing income over $500,000 at a new and high rate to give property tax relief to people who make under $200,000 and it has been acknowledged that he can do that because there are only X thousand people in that high income bracket and, hell, none of them probably voted for McGreevey anyway. He also raised taxes on property sales so anyone in the state who is trying to use the money made in a home as a nest egg or as payment on the next home now has to pay the state on the way.

If either manager had cut spending to cut taxes, fine. That's good management. Government, just like industry, needs restructuring. But neither did that. Bush stole from our children and McGreevey stole from the state's most successful to give money and buy votes. That's bad management. That's political cynicism.

Now, I haven't studied the NJ state tax tables recently. [Recently? -- ed. Oh, alright, damn you. Ever.] It's entirely possible that McGreevey is, in fact, raising taxes on an already over-taxed group. And if Jeff wants to make that argument (with the aforementioned tax tables, of course), more power to him. But his suggestion that there is, ipso facto, some sort of moral equivalence between an effort to shift a portion of the tax burden from one group to another and a policy of slashing taxes on the wealthy and running ruinous deficits to pay for it is worse than silly; it's an insult to the intelligence of anyone who's ever spent five minutes thinking about fiscal policy. (Hell, it's an insult to anybody who's ever spent five minutes thinking about balancing a checkbook.) And the kind of moral distinction we're talking about here matters, particularly in a political era in which so much of our national debate revolves around questions of who gets and who pays and how much.

As anyone who reads his blog regularly could tell you, Jeff Jarvis is (a) a very smart guy, and (b) a man who takes the issue of moral equivalence seriously. In other words, he knows better. So, not to put too fine a point on it or anything, but ... hey, Jeff, what gives?

UPDATE: And while I'm catching up on Thursday posts that I somehow missed at the time (was I unusually busy that day?), here's Barry Ritholtz rounding up this year's "presidential indicators," and here he is again this morning with a followup.

UPDATE 2 (6/28): In case you mistakenly thought I was just being polite when I called Jeff Jarvis a very smart guy, read this sharp takedown of some of the blogosphere's nattering nabobs of know-nothingism.

*CORRECTION: Now I know why I just discovered Jeff's post: It was from yesterday, not Thursday. Sorry about that. As always, I'll try to do better next time.

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According to Robin Wright, the Bush Doctrine is about to take its place alongside Super Train, Manimal, and Pink Lady and Jeff in the annals of swift and spectacular flops.

In going to war 15 months ago, the president's Iraq policy rested on four broad principles: The United States should act preemptively to prevent strikes on U.S. targets. Washington should be willing to act unilaterally, alone or with a select coalition, when the United Nations or allies balk. Iraq was the next cornerstone in the global war on terrorism. And Baghdad's transformation into a new democracy would spark regionwide change.

But these central planks of Bush doctrine have been tainted by spiraling violence, limited reconstruction, failure to find weapons of mass destruction or prove Iraq's ties to al Qaeda, and mounting Arab disillusionment with U.S. leadership.

"Of the four principles, three have failed, and the fourth -- democracy promotion -- is hanging by a sliver," said Geoffrey Kemp, a National Security Council staff member in the Reagan administration and now director of regional strategic programs at the Nixon Center.

The president has "walked away from unilateralism. We're not going to do another preemptive strike anytime soon, certainly not in Iran or North Korea. And it looks like terrorism is getting worse, not better, especially in critical countries like Saudi Arabia," Kemp said.

As a result, Bush doctrine could become the biggest casualty of U.S. intervention in Iraq, which is entering a new phase this week as the United States prepares to hand over power to the new Iraqi government.

The worst aspect of all this (aside from the loss of life, of course) may be the fact that this administration's almost willful incompetence in Iraq has discredited some policy ideas -- preemption and, uh, coercive democracy promotion, in particular -- that a future president may need to be free to pursue. American lives could very well depend upon it, in fact. Unfortunately, that president will, in all likelihood, be leading a country still in the grips of what its pundits will no doubt call the Iraq syndrome; as a consequence, those tools may well be unavailable to him. And the disaster that could result is unlikely to be one about which we'll all feel better after a collective, Dick Cheney-like "f*** you" -- though a loud and unmistakable one this November just might help us avoid that unhappy fate.

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June 27, 2004

Yesterday's Matt Yglesias piece on the minor dustup he got into with National Review editor Rich Lowry a few months back reminded me of something I've been meaning to say since I discovered this old Corner post during a recent (and, yes, predictably sordid) episode of search-engine onanism: NRO's Ramesh Ponnuru certainly knows how to make a classy correction.

POSTSCRIPT: See? Just a few kind words and I'll lick your hand like a Labrador retriever. Who says I'm not ready for serious journalism?

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Jesse Taylor puts it well:

[H]ow many debates do we have in this country that start off under patently false pretenses? Tort reform, the estate tax, Social Security, the war in Iraq, and many more. It's not even different interpretations of the facts, different glosses on the same basic ideas. The partisan divide comes from the fact that we're having totally different debates on the same issues, to the point where we simply are talking about disparate ideas and problems.

I probably get at least one e-mail a week from somebody who's been around the blogosphere for a while and remembers a time when I seemed less partisan than I do now. And as much as I'd like to disagree with their assessment, I can't. In my own defense, though, I have to say that Jesse's point above has a lot to do with it. I'm still more than willing to compromise on most of the major issues; hell, I'd like to. But when the other side -- and this really is primarily a Republican problem these days -- won't even be honest about the basic nature of the questions under discussion, there's nothing to compromise about. It's just Blue Guitar stuff, and, while that may make for fascinating poesy, it's a puerile and damned near psychotic way to try to conduct the public's business in the world's oldest democracy.

As a great man almost (and perhaps should have) said, I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is sane.

POSTSCRIPT: As you may have noticed, I've decided that everything from Travis McGee to sitcom philosophy to, well, Wallace Stevens is fair game on Saturdays and Sundays. [What's next? Cat blogging? -- ed. Nope. Other folks have got that covered.] I hope nobody minds these brief side trips, but now that I'm blogging more during the week, I'm finding that a little change of pace is necessary (from my perspective, anyway) on the weekends.

POSTSCRIPT 2: You know, that reminds me. Have I told you about Dylan Thomas O'Toole? Why, he's the cutest little orange fur ball....

UPDATE (6/27): I was in such a rush to get out of here last night (Fahrenheit 9/11 beckoned) that this train wreck of a post made its way to the blog without so much as a spell check. Uncounted edits and revisions later, it's still not exactly what I had in mind, but I'm really tired of messing with it at this point, so I guess I'm just gonna have to quit while I'm behind.

Oh, well. They can't all be winners, can they?

RELATED: BUSH'S WAR ON THE TRUTH CONTINUES

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June 26, 2004

As Carla and I were getting ready to head out of town last week, I walked across the orchard to her grandparents' old house where we store the legacy of my misspent youth -- the boxes upon boxes of paperbacks I collected as a geeky, gawky, how's-the-weather-up-there kid. I grabbed a handful of John D. MacDonald's Travis McGee novels and we hit the road.

And, well, ... wow. Sure, the books are dated, particularly in terms of what McGee would probably call "the man-woman thing." But the entertainment quotient is high -- off-the-charts high by today's bloated bestseller standard, in fact -- and the writing is seldom less than quietly spectacular. Here's a fairly typical passage from 1971's A Tan and Sandy Silence that might be of some small interest to bloggers (and blog readers) like me and thee:

The motel television was on the cable. We turned the sound off and watched the news on the electronic printer, going by at a pace for a retarded fifth grader, white on black printing with so many typos the spelling was more like third grade than fifth.

The woes of the world inched up the screen. Droughts and murders. Inflation and balance of payments. Drugs and demonstrations. Body counts and new juntas.

Spiro was dead wrong. The trouble with the news is that everybody knows everything too fast and too often and too many times. News had always been bad. The tiger that lives in the forest just ate your wife and kids, Joe. There are no fat grub worms under the rotten logs this year, Al. Those sickies in the village on the other side of the mountain are training hairy mammoths to stomp us flat, Pete. They nailed up two thieves and one crackpot, Mary. So devote wire service people and network people and syndication people to gathering up all the bad news they can possibly dredge and comb and scrape out of a news-tired world and have them spray it back at everybody in constant streams of electrons, and two things happen. First, we all stop listening, so they have to make it even more horrendous to capture our attention. Secondly, we all become even more convinced that everything has gone rotten, and there is no hope at all, no hope at all. In a world of no hope the motto is semper fidelis, which means in translation, "Every week is screw-your-buddy week and his wife too, if he's out of town."

As the Post's Jonathan Yardley wrote not long ago, "For my money, John D. MacDonald's Travis McGee is one of the great characters in contemporary American fiction -- not crime fiction; fiction, period..." Give old Trav a read, and see if you don't agree.

NOTE: No Amazon link because digging through the musty stacks in your local used bookshop is at least half the fun....

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Democrats and headline writers try to contain their glee outrage.

UPDATE 6/26: Mistakes were made....

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June 25, 2004

I don't usually do technology news here on the blog, but this sounds like it might merit some folks' immediate attention.

PC Users Warned of Infected Web Sites Computer security experts and the federal government are warning Internet users to take extra precautions when browsing the Web after an Internet attack seeded Web sites with programs that hackers can use to steal personal information.

The attack is more dangerous than most, according to the government's US-CERT cybersecurity center, infection is possible just by visiting affected Web sites, according to US-CERT, a division of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

The attackers, whose identities are unknown, targeted a flaw in Web sites powered by Microsoft's Internet Information Services Web server (IIS). The sites hit by the attack were programmed to redirect the Explorer browser to another Web site that contains code that hackers use to record what people type on their keyboards -- including data such as passwords, credit card and Social Security numbers. The code then e-mails that information back to the attackers.

Computers that run Microsoft's Internet Explorer browsers are vulnerable to infection, according to US-CERT. The CERT warning said Internet Explorer users can protect themselves by turning off the "javascript" function in their browsers. Javascript is a computer language often used in building Web sites. The attack takes advantage of two recently discovered security flaws in Internet Explorer. Microsoft released a patch in April to fix one of the security holes; the company is still working on a patch for the other flaw, which security researchers publicly detailed less than two weeks ago.

CERT recommends that Internet Explorer users consider different browsers such as Mozilla Firefox, Netscape Communicator or Opera. For people who continue to use Internet Explorer, CERT and Microsoft recommend setting the browser's security setting to "high."

More: How to protect yourself.

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"I said, 'Look, Mr. President, would I keep Rumsfeld? Absolutely not.' And I turned to Vice President Cheney, who was there, and I said, 'Mr. Vice President, I wouldn't keep you if it weren't constitutionally required.'"

--Senator Joe Biden, recalling his response when the president asked for advice about resignations in the wake of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal

UPDATE: Via Goldberg and Guthrie, the interview from which the quote above was drawn.

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Two mystery writers whose novels have made some of the good days better, and some of the bad ones tolerable: Roger L. Simon, who's often wrong but never dull, and Ed Gorman, who loves mysteries the way Elvis loves L.A. and Amos loves filter tips and Spenser loves Hawk. ... I mean Susan.

I think.

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June 24, 2004

Michelle Malkin wants to know why Hollywood isn't acting like it's 1941 all over again.

Once upon a time, there were people in Hollywood who loved America. And when America came under attack from enemies abroad, these actors, producers, screenwriters and directors put aside their partisan differences and created movies that -- unlike Michael Moore's new schlockumentary, "Fahrenheit 9/11" -- made all moviegoers proud to be Americans.

Let's noodle around with that concept a bit, and see how it might emerge from a different pundit's word processor.

Once upon a time, there were conservatives who loved America. And when America came under attack from enemies abroad, these senators, congressmen, columnists and opinion leaders set aside partisan differences and supported the kind of national sacrifice -- tax increases, rationing, the draft -- required to bring about the unconditional surrender of our enemies. Today's conservatives, by contrast, assure us that when the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.

Now, obviously, we all know that conservatives aren't bad people who hate America. They simply believe that different wars in different eras call for different responses. And frankly, I'd be more than a little hesitant to cheap-shot them on that point, since to do so would almost inevitably lead reasonable people to think me an intellectually dishonest, nakedly partisan propagandist of the worst kind -- a perception that I suspect I would find ... painful somehow.

It must very liberating not to have those kinds of concerns.

UPDATE: Oops. Via Pandagon.

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I haven't read Bill Clinton's new book yet, so I have absolutely no idea whether it's any good or not. That said, Anne Applebaum's Op-Ed page review in this morning's WaPo seems more than a little strange. Here's a taste:

In fact, other than the personal issues of interest to him -- the putting to rest of his "demons," the healing of his "self-inflicted wounds" -- there are no real themes in this book, unless you count his battle with the "forces of reaction and division" that wanted to remove him from office. For all his vaunted interest in policy solutions, it's hard to glean anything like a "big idea" from the mass of detail. For all his faith that he is on "the right side of history," he doesn't engage much with his policy opponents at all, or even acknowledge that they have any arguments worth engaging. The comparison to another former president is impossible to avoid: Maybe Ronald Reagan thought air pollution came from trees, but in the end he stared down the Soviet Union, and that's what he was remembered for. Clinton, by contrast, has left us with mind-numbing lists of foreign trips, throwaway references to long-forgotten political battles, meetings with the pope, Rabin, Yeltsin, whoever. Because there is no central argument, no clear explanation of what his presidency was about, one is left, in the end, with nothing other than an emotional reaction to the man himself -- as always.

Two quick points:

1) I can't wait for Applebaum to start giving us her take on the classics: Other than the personal issues of interest to Mr. Wilde -- the putting to rest of his "demons," the healing of his "self-inflicted wounds" -- there are no real themes in De Profundis, unless you count his battle with the "forces of reaction and division" that sent him to prison....

2) Read that second bit again, the "comparison" to President Reagan. Talk about apples and oranges: Clinton doesn't make the big policy argument in his book. Reagan will be remembered for.... Not, Clinton doesn't make the argument, and Reagan did. Because, of course, Reagan didn't. Reagan took the big advance, and then turned the actual writing of his autobiography over to a ghost, who produced an instantly forgettable non-book book that's been gathering dust since the day it was published. In that light, Clinton's efforts look, well, not so bad. Maybe even a little better than not so bad. So we can't very well allow that comparison to be made, can we, Ms. A.? That just wouldn't do. No, that wouldn't do, at all.

As I said in the opening, I don't have a clue whether Clinton's book is any good or not. For all I know, it's as cluttered as Clancy and as turgid as Turgenev. But I do know a hatchet-job when I see one -- and Ms. Applebaum's review is a flawless exemplar of the species.

UPDATE: The indispensable Brad DeLong reviews the reviews here.

UPDATE 2 (6/24): Novelist Larry McMurtry writes, "William Jefferson Clinton's 'My Life' is, by a generous measure, the richest American presidential autobiography - no other book tells us as vividly or fully what it is like to be president of the United States for eight years."

UPDATE 3 (6/24): Jeff Jarvis adds, "The NY Times says the book set records for sales in its first days, beating Hillary, and perhaps racking up 500k in a day. But then there's the pissy local-angle story: It's not selling well in East Texas. So, what, that means four copies instead of five?"

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June 23, 2004

Unfogged is back.

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June 22, 2004

I'm not a fiskin' kinda guy, but this post by the normally thoughtful Tacitus really deserves a little special attention. So let's start at the top and run through the whole thing, shall we?

Yglesias is upset that retrospectives on Clinton are focusing on the single most significant event of Clinton's presidency. Funny how that goes.

Actually, Matt's complaint was just the reverse, but since Tacitus cleaned that up with an update, we'll move on.

If you think I don't like the implicit contrast with the premier Republican president of the last quarter-century, think again.

The premier Republican president of the last quarter-century? Sure, I'll buy that. President Reagan beats Bush pere and fils hands-down. I'll leave it to some of the Gipper's more ardent admirers to determine whether that's really a compliment, though, or a classic case of damning with faint praise.

Bill Clinton was a charismatic man, a competent administrator, a moral void, and in league with the presidents between Jackson and Lincoln as a great deferrer of inevitable questions of American identity and mission. He gets due credit for fortuitous timing -- amazing what the business cycle and emerging transformative technologies can do -- and, paradoxically, for having so little core principle as to easily tack with the political winds after November '94.

A moral void? Let's see, now. Bill Clinton was part of a generation of Southern pols that had an opportunity to switch parties without penalty as it became clear that the political future of the region, and perhaps even the nation, was spelled GOP. We can all name several who chose to do precisely that. Clinton didn't. In fact, he stood some pretty unpopular progressive ground in the 1980s, in Arkansas and beyond. That doesn't sound like the behavior of a "moral void" to me. Unless, of course, you believe that public morality doesn't count -- in which case, we can pull out the Reagan family scrapbook and start our discussion of his public life with the loving portrait of wise and responsible parenting limned therein.

And what are we to make of the charge that Clinton benefited from "fortuitous timing?" Well, he did, actually. On the other hand, that argument sounds a little silly coming from a blogger who, just a few sentences later, credits Ronald Reagan with winning the Cold War. Could Reagan have "won" the Cold War if he'd been elected in 1960? Or 1970? Of course not. The issue isn't the hands these presidents were dealt, but how well they played them. And, by that standard, Clinton did just fine, thank you very much.

As to the question of Clinton's supposed lack of "core principle[s]," I'd challenge anyone out there to find a single bill -- just one, folks -- that Clinton signed after the Republican takeover in 1994 that's fundamentally at odds with the ideas outlined in his 1992 presidential announcement speech, or his quite detailed campaign book, Putting People First. As my old Irish grandfather used to say, if you can do that, I'll kiss your a** at high noon in the middle of Central Park -- and give you fifteen minutes to gather a crowd first.

Some good conservative governance happened on Clinton's watch (free trade, welfare reform, and balanced budgets among them), and that ought not go unacknowledged. On the other hand, we can't forget feckless feel-good foreign policy, health care "reform," and yes, impeachment; the latter of which, whatever roots it had in an obsessive witch-hunt, would never have occurred absent Clinton's own gross iniquity. Is this part of the Clinton legacy? Absolutely. Is it directly reflective upon Clinton himself? Without question. Was the second presidential impeachment in over two centuries of American independence inherently the signal event of that president's tenure in office? Of course.

Feckless feel-good foreign policy? Compared to what? Allowing several hundred marines to die in a Beirut-based photo op before declaring, Rosanne Rosannadanna-like, "Never mind." Or deploying thousands of troops to Somalia with the primary mission of getting hungry people off America's TV screens? As someone -- Kevin Drum, I think -- said recently, in a somewhat different context, "Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle."

Health care reform? Clinton blew it, and he'd tell you that himself. Still, I have to say that it felt pretty damned good to have a president who actually cared about the fact that forty million Americans don't have health insurance. And, frankly, I'm looking forward to the day when I can feel that way again.

As to Tac's suggestion that the Lewinsky mess involved "gross iniquity," rather than, say, monumental middle-aged foolishness, I honestly don't have much of a response. I guess either you're with us, or you're with the moralists.

Yglesias and those Democrats weary of being reminded of the Republican archetype they and theirs so wrongly opposed in the crisis years may dislike it. But truth will out: The historical memory of Ronald Reagan reduces to winning the Cold War. The historical memory of Bill Clinton reduces to tawdry disgrace. If this is the Democratic counterpoint to the pro-conservative nostalgia of the past few weeks -- and let's be honest, this is the best they have to offer -- then I, for one, can only respond thus:

Bring it on.

Yes, indeed, my friend -- do bring it on.

Eight years of economic expansion that reached the bottom as well as the top. Eight years of strong alliances and a safe, secure America. Eight years in which our greatest national problem was the wayward presidential member.

I'd take that again in a heart beat. And so would the vast majority of the hundred million or so people who are going to show up this November and decide who's to govern this country for the next four years.

So, please, don't bring it on slowly, Tacitus, and don't bring it on so carelessly next time. Bring it with all you've got, and bring it now. We're ready. And a better future is just an election away.

UPDATE: Okay, I've settled down now. Sorry about the unusually long post. (That atypically earnest prose at the end there could use a little work, too, actually.) Next time I'll try to exercise a little more restraint.

CORRECTION: So I'm reading this typically witty billmon post over at the Whiskey Bar, when all of a sudden I realize that I may have just had my first senior moment at the not-so-tender age of thirty-eight: Of course it was Emily Litella, and not Rosanne Rosannadanna, who famously said, "Never mind."

Never mind, indeed.

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Bush Loses Advantage In War on Terrorism
Nation Evenly Divided on President, Kerry

POSTSCRIPT: As Kevin Drum points out, these results mean that the Bush reelect is in even deeper doo-doo than we knew.

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AP: U.S. Hostage Beheaded, Terror Group Says

UPDATE: James Joyner is blogging the story here.

ANOTHER UPDATE: More at Unfogged.

FINAL UPDATE: Spencer Ackerman offers an intriguing (and deeply discouraging) perspective here.

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PoliticsOnline president Phil Noble tells the AP that bloggers at this year's Democratic convention will be able to cover "the small stories, the small voices" that Big Media tends to ignore.

FULL DISCLOSURE: See the About section in the left-hand column.

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I wish I could excoriate the Supreme Court for its ruling yesterday that states can't unilaterally give their citizens the right to collect meaningful damages from HMOs for malpractice, but I can't. It appears to be a pretty sound decision, with the Court recognizing, and deferring to, the clear intent of Congress.

So, if you believe that HMOs are, in fact, practicing medicine when they deny life-saving treatments to their customers, and that those customers or their loved ones should have the right to punish the HMOs that do so, there's really only one remedy available.

Elect a Democratic Congress that agrees with you.

UPDATE: In response to the decision, the American Medical Association says that HMOs "can now practice medicine without a license, and without the same accountability that physicians face every day."

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Columnist and blogger Michelle Malkin uses an e-mailer to suggest that Bill Clinton's sins were somehow comparable to those of Connecticut Governor John Rowland, who announced his resignation today in the face of several ongoing investigations.

So what was Rowland accused of, anyway? A little extracurricular activity in the Governor's Mansion? Lying about a girlfriend he shouldn't have had?

Well, no, not exactly.

Rowland became engulfed in scandal in December when he admitted accepting renovations at his lakeside cottage -- including a hot tub and new heating system -- and lying about it. Other gifts and favors soon came to light.

One longtime friend, a state contractor, bought the governor's Washington condominium at an inflated price through a straw buyer. Rowland received cigars, champagne, a vintage Ford Mustang convertible, a canoe and free or discounted vacations from employees and friends -- including some with state contracts. The FBI was even looking into whether Rowland skimmed money from low-stakes poker games he hosted.

Please, will someone tell me: What is it about Bill Clinton that makes otherwise rational conservatives so goofy? And isn't there a program of some kind that offers them at least a halfway decent shot at recovery?

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June 21, 2004

It ain't pretty, babe.

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As we saw recently in Spain, Al Qaeda has a pretty sophisticated understanding of the larger political world in which they operate. There's further evidence of that today:

AP: The al-Qaida group responsible for abducting and killing an American engineer says it was aided by sympathizers in the Saudi security forces, a claim that was denied by Saudi authorities.

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula made the claim in an account of the operation posted on an Islamic extremist Web site Sunday.

It said Saudi security forces provided uniforms and police cars to militants who then set up a fake checkpoint to kidnap Paul M. Johnson Jr. The militants say they posed as police to stop Johnson's car, anesthetized him and carried him to another car.

"A number of the cooperators who are sincere to their religion in the security apparatus donated those clothes and the police cars. We ask God to reward them and that they use their energy to serve Islam and the mujahedeen," the article said.

Regardless of its accuracy, this story is clearly the product of a smart, effective communications strategy. And what's our answer to this challenge? Well, suffice it to say that as long as the kind of numbskulls who keep insisting that public relations disasters like Abu Ghraib don't really matter are running the show in DC, we're not even in the game.

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If you had awakened me from a sound sleep and demanded to know whether fellow South Carolinian Jeff Quinton had a spot in the blogroll, I'd have said, "Of course, he does." (Actually, I'd have said something along the lines of "Huh?" first, but you get the idea.)

Anyway, my apologies to Jeff. He's now over there on the right where he belongs.

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According to today's New York Times, the Bush administration is holding about as many high-ranking Al Qaeda leaders at the US detention center at Guantánamo Bay as you're likely find in your local county lockup.

U.S. Said to Overstate Value of Guantánamo Detainees For nearly two and a half years, American officials have maintained that locked within the steel-mesh cells of the military prison here are some of the world's most dangerous terrorists — "the worst of a very bad lot," Vice President Dick Cheney has called them.

The officials say information gleaned from the detainees has exposed terrorist cells, thwarted planned attacks and revealed vital intelligence about Al Qaeda. The secrets they hold and the threats they pose justify holding them indefinitely without charge, Bush administration officials have said.

But as the Supreme Court prepares to rule on the legal status of the 595 men imprisoned here, an examination by The New York Times has found that government and military officials have repeatedly exaggerated both the danger the detainees posed and the intelligence they have provided.

In interviews, dozens of high-level military, intelligence and law-enforcement officials in the United States, Europe and the Middle East said that contrary to the repeated assertions of senior administration officials, none of the detainees at the United States Naval Base at Guantánamo Bay ranked as leaders or senior operatives of Al Qaeda. They said only a relative handful — some put the number at about a dozen, others more than two dozen — were sworn Qaeda members or other militants able to elucidate the organization's inner workings.

POSTSCRIPT: Via Drudge, Time has more on the administration's detainee mess.

UPDATE: Judge Declares Abu Ghraib a Crime Scene

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June 20, 2004

I meant to link to this particularly strong Matthew Yglesias post on the chief philosophical difference between the Democratic and Republican foreign policy establishments yesterday, but incipient old age reared its graying head, and I forgot to do so. As a result of that lapse, though, I can also throw in a link to this additional, hot-off-the-blog Yglesias post explaining why, if it's sexy, it's Meet the Press.

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If you're of a certain age, you probably remember this oft-recycled '70s sitcom plot:

Much-loved series star, Jack/Jackie, who has to be away from the office/house for some extended period, frets that the whole business/family structure is going to come crashing down in his/her absence -- an idea that's turned on its head after the first commercial break, when he/she checks in from the road and makes the unsettling discovery that everything at work/home is ... wonderful. Even worse, the reason things are going so well is that his/her stand-in has turned out to be an ideal substitute. Outstanding in every way. Suddenly, the much-loved Jack/Jackie feels, well, not very much loved. Touching hilarity ensues, as heart-strings are tugged and lessons learned.

I don't know what made me think of that on this muggy Sunday morning in old Charleston. Gen X nostalgia, I guess. Because, when I sat down to write this post, the thrust was supposed to be quite different, really. Mostly, I was just planning to inquire after a fellow denizen of the blogosphere....

So, uh, Josh, how's that vacation going?

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June 19, 2004

There are some who say that Bill Gates believes in the First Amendment. Well, as a former president might have said, let them come to Brazil.

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Sen. Joe Biden's piece on the mess we've gotten ourselves into in Iraq is behind TNR's subscriber wall, so I'm hesitant to quote from it at length. That said, four grafs and a link to their trial subscription sign-up page sounds kinda-sorta like "fair use" to me, so here goes:

Much has been said about the potential consequences of failure in Iraq--how it would provide a new haven for terrorists, deal a blow to reformers and modernizers throughout the region, and encourage radicals in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. But perhaps failure's most pernicious legacy will be a further hardening of the Vietnam syndrome that afflicts some in the Democratic Party--a distrust of the use of American power....

That syndrome is one reason why, from day one, many of us in Congress pressed the president to level with the American people about what would be required to prevail in Iraq. But he didn't. He didn't tell them that well over 100,000 troops would be needed for well over two years. He didn't tell them the cost would surpass $200 billion--and far exceed Iraq's oil revenue. He didn't tell them that our children and grandchildren would pay the bill because of his refusal to rescind even a small portion of the tax cut he gave to the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans. He didn't tell them that, even after paying such a heavy price, success was not assured, because no one had ever succeeded at forcibly democratizing a nation in the Middle East, let alone an entire region.

As a result, today those who recognize that we must persevere in Iraq risk losing public support. Americans sense that our policy is adrift and that we do not have a plan for success. Worse, they may conclude that this is what happens when we venture abroad. Someday, probably sooner rather than later, there will be another Slobodan Milosevic or another Saddam, and the profound mistakes in Iraq will make it harder to generate domestic and international political support for the use of force. That is a legacy we can ill afford.

Maybe, as some argue, so many mistakes have been made in Iraq that it is impossible to turn the corner. Anti-American attitudes and a nascent warlordism may already be so deeply entrenched that there is little we can do to succeed. It would be foolhardy to deny that possibility. But it would be even more foolhardy, and dangerous, to accept failure as inevitable and move to cut our losses. Despite the naysayers, it is not too late. But only the president can alter our course in Iraq. As he did when Congress first authorized him to use force, the president has the choice of using his power effectively or squandering it to satisfy ideological predilections. Let us hope he has grown wiser in the past year.

I realize that the Biden position -- yes, go to war, but, Jesus, don't be so damned dumb about it -- has never been terribly popular with either side. But I've believed from the get-go that it was the best option open to us, and I still do, I guess. At least until somebody convinces me that there was a way to put Saddam Hussein back in his box without starving the Iraqi people -- which was always the morally dubious and too seldom acknowledged flip-side of containment.

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June 18, 2004

Charles Kuffner: "I suppose we should have seen this one coming: In response to Rep. Chris Bell's ethics complaint against Majority Leader Tom DeLay, a GOP flack has moved to forbid the filing of such complaints by lame-duck members."

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A few days ago, Kevin Drum wrote a typically smart post arguing that the real divide in American politics is between big cities and small towns -- a point that last night's homeland security vote in the House illustrates quite nicely.

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From Friday's Financial Times:

Colin Powell would be willing to continue serving as secretary of state in a second Bush administration if he were able to take a grip on the direction of US foreign policy, a senior official said on Thursday.

According to conventional wisdom in Washington, even if President George W. Bush should win a second term in the November election, Mr Powell would take the opportunity to leave office after the frustrations of being overruled on important policy decisions by a White House in the thrall of neo-conservative ideology.

"He could possibly stay on for a year or 18 months, especially if he is told that the ship of state is available at the helm," the official said.

Mr Powell, who is 67 and had surgery for prostate cancer last December, would not want to serve another four years.

The official, who asked not to be named, said there was a possibility that the influential neo-conservatives were "in complete retreat and turning on themselves" after the setbacks in Iraq, and that there would be a "massive exiting". But he also conceded that they could simply be "hunkered down" and might return.

What I find interesting about all this isn't the internecine squabbling, which is, of course, old news at this point. Rather, it's the unquestioned presumption that, if only the neocons could be dislodged, the helm of the ship of state would suddenly be available for Secretary Powell to assume.

Which rather inevitably leads one to ask: In most administrations, isn't that guiding-the-ship-of-state job already taken?

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"My daughter is a single mother. She didn't get any of that."

--Southern Baptist Convention member Al Oxford, on President Bush's tax cuts, after the president's televised address to the group Tuesday

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June 17, 2004

Though we approach the issues from slightly different points on the ideological compass, James Joyner is a very reasonable guy. Which is why this passage surprised me so much when I came across it:

More important ... is the fact that Bush and Kerry have fundamentally different views on the war on terrorism. The Bush policy is much more aggressive—a literal rather than a figurative war—than we’d likely see under Kerry. Ultimately, though, we have to speculate on what Kerry would do since he’s been incredibly vague, preferring to criticize the Bush policy without arguing a concrete alternative.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but really, James, what more do you want?

UPDATE: James responds with a follow-up post here, and now that I've read it, I think I understand his earlier point a little better. He simply wants John Kerry to be more detailed and specific than any candidate in US history -- including the current occupant of the Oval Office, who, until recently, couldn't even tell us who he was going to turn the government of Iraq over to at the end of the month.

UPDATE 2: And James has the last word in the comments.

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Well said, Mr. Cole.

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Unlike many left-leaning bloggers, I don't make a habit of picking on Glenn Reynolds; as I've said before, and will no doubt say again, I like the guy. But this kind of raised-eyebrow, guilt-by-association stuff is really a bit much -- and if Glenn weren't so deeply involved in all the left-right sturm und drang that's roiling the blogosphere these days, I suspect he'd be the first to tell you that.

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Bill Clinton spoke at length last night about Ken, Paula, Monica, and the vast right-wing conspiracy after a screening of The Hunting of the President at NYU. Jeff Jarvis was there.

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New to the blogroll today: Paperwight's Fair Shot and The Blogging of the President: 2004.

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I wonder if Secretary Rumsfeld has the metrics he needs to measure the success or failure of this particular operation.

  • Step 1: Capture a legitimately dangerous terrorist in Iraq.
  • Step 2: Risk international censure by hiding said terrorist from the Red Cross because he's got information we really need to know about the inner workings of the terror network.
  • Step 3: Forget to question the terrorist.

The Times has the story:

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, acting at the request of George J. Tenet, the director of central intelligence, ordered military officials in Iraq last November to hold a man suspected of being a senior Iraqi terrorist at a high-level detention center there but not list him on the prison's rolls, senior Pentagon and intelligence officials said Wednesday.

This prisoner and other "ghost detainees" were hidden largely to prevent the International Committee of the Red Cross from monitoring their treatment, and to avoid disclosing their location to an enemy, officials said. ...

This prisoner, who has not been named, is believed to be the first to have been kept off the books at the orders of Mr. Rumsfeld and Mr. Tenet. He was not held at Abu Ghraib, but at another prison, Camp Cropper, on the outskirts of Baghdad International Airport, officials said.

Pentagon and intelligence officials said the decision to hold the detainee without registering him - at least initially - was in keeping with the administration's legal opinion about the status of those viewed as an active threat in wartime.

Seven months later, however, the detainee - a reputed senior officer of Ansar al-Islam, a group the United States has linked to Al Qaeda and blames for some attacks in Iraq - is still languishing at the prison but has only been questioned once while in detention, in what government officials acknowledged was an extraordinary lapse.

"Once he was placed in military custody, people lost track of him," a senior intelligence official conceded Wednesday night. "The normal review processes that would keep track of him didn't."

The detainee was described by the official as someone "who was actively planning operations specifically targeting U.S. forces and interests both inside and outside of Iraq."

But once he was placed into custody at Camp Cropper, where about 100 detainees deemed to have the highest intelligence value are held, he received only one cursory arrival interrogation from military officers and was never again questioned by any other military or intelligence officers, according to Pentagon and intelligence officials.

New York Times: Rumsfeld Issued an Order to Hide Detainee in Iraq

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June 16, 2004

Today, Dan Drezner quotes Steven Pearlstein on John Kerry's playing of the "economic blame game," and closes with the rhetorical question, "Not exactly a replica of Reagan's optimism, eh?"

Huh? Here's then-Gov. Reagan closing out the final debate of the 1980 campaign:

It might be well if you ask yourself are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe? That we're as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions yes, why then I think your choice is very obvious as to who you'll vote for. If you don't agree, if you don't think that this course that we've been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have.

Has the "economic blame game" ever been played better? Or more aggressively? President Reagan was an optimist, and that's an important lesson to take from his long and successful life. But the man was also a professional. When there was a strong "economic blame game" to be played, the real Ronald Reagan (as opposed to the political plaster saint we've seen discussed ad nauseum in recent days) didn't hesitate to step up and swing for the fences.

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Ogged: "Will someone please finally call Dick Cheney a liar? Please?"

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