According to this morning's San Francisco Chronicle, "GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon -- just two months ago a mere footnote in the polls -- has, for the first time, charged ahead of former front-runner Richard Riordan among likely GOP primary voters, a Field poll shows. With just under a week to the March 5 primary, the poll shows Simon with the support of 37 percent of likely Republican voters to 31 percent for Riordan -- a stunning surge from last month, when Simon was 33 percentage points behind the former Los Angeles mayor."

It's an interesting story, but the poll looks a little, well... odd. First, the sample was small compared to last month's Field poll showing Riordan with a comfortable lead (646 registered voters vs. 1,022). And second, there's no explanation why the percentage of self-described "strongly conservative" voters rose from 37% of the sample in the last survey to 41% here, an important question since Simon's lead appears to be made up largely of those voters. (In most other demos, the race looks tight, with large numbers of undecideds.) I don't doubt that this poll has captured real movement in the race; I just wonder if Riordan isn't actually in better shape than he currently appears, particularly with almost 30% of female voters -- a natural Riordan constituency -- among the undecided.
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